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NA (Ed.)Amazon forests are undergoing rapid transformations driven by deforestation, climate change, fire, and other anthropogenic pressures, leading to the hypothesis that they may be nearing a catastrophic tipping point—beyond which ecosystems could shift to a permanently altered state. This review revisits the concept of an Amazon tipping point and assesses the risk of forest collapse from an ecological perspective. We synthesize evidence showing that environmental stressors can drive critical ecosystem transitions, either gradually through incremental loss of resilience or abruptly via synergistic feedbacks. The interplay between climate and land-use change amplifies risks to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and livelihoods. Yet, there is limited evidence for a single, system-wide tipping point. Instead, the Amazon's resilience—although not unlimited—offers meaningful pathways for recovery. The most immediate and effective strategies to support this resilience include slowing forest loss, mitigating climate change, reducing fire activity, curbing defaunation, and restoring degraded ecosystems. Without decisive action to address direct threats, the Amazon system may be pushed beyond safe ecological-climatological operating limits—even in the absence of sharply defined thresholds—due to the scale and persistence of anthropogenic pressures. Preserving the Amazon's ecological integrity and its vital role in regulating the global climate requires urgent, sustained conservation efforts in collaboration with local and Indigenous communities.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available October 6, 2026
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null (Ed.)Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079–189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3–85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253–10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.more » « less
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